Facebook
Twitter
Linkedin

Archive for the ‘economics’ Category

Declaration of the Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy

Sunday, November 16th, 2008

 

1. We, the Leaders of the Group of Twenty, held an initial meeting in Washington on November 15, 2008, amid serious challenges to the world economy and financial markets. We are determined to enhance our cooperation and work together to restore global growth and achieve needed reforms in the world’s financial systems.

2. Over the past months our countries have taken urgent and exceptional measures to support the global economy and stabilize financial markets. These efforts must continue. At the same time, we must lay the foundation for reform to help to ensure that a global crisis, such as this one, does not happen again. Our work will be guided by a shared belief that market principles, open trade and investment regimes, and effectively regulated financial markets foster the dynamism, innovation, and entrepreneurship that are essential for economic growth, employment, and poverty reduction.

Root Causes of the Current Crisis

3. During a period of strong global growth, growing capital flows, and prolonged stability earlier this decade, market participants sought higher yields without an adequate appreciation of the risks and failed to exercise proper due diligence. At the same time, weak underwriting standards, unsound risk management practices, increasingly complex and opaque financial products, and consequent excessive leverage combined to create vulnerabilities in the system. Policy-makers, regulators and supervisors, in some advanced countries, did not adequately appreciate and address the risks building up in financial markets, keep pace with financial innovation, or take into account the systemic ramifications of domestic regulatory actions.

4. Major underlying factors to the current situation were, among others, inconsistent and insufficiently coordinated macroeconomic policies, inadequate structural reforms, which led to unsustainable global macroeconomic outcomes. These developments, together, contributed to excesses and ultimately resulted in severe market disruption.

Actions Taken and to Be Taken

5. We have taken strong and significant actions to date to stimulate our economies, provide liquidity, strengthen the capital of financial institutions, protect savings and deposits, address regulatory deficiencies, unfreeze credit markets, and are working to ensure that international financial institutions (IFIs) can provide critical support for the global economy.

6. But more needs to be done to stabilize financial markets and support economic growth. Economic momentum is slowing substantially in major economies and the global outlook has weakened. Many emerging market economies, which helped sustain

the world economy this decade, are still experiencing good growth but increasingly are being adversely impacted by the worldwide slowdown.

7. Against this background of deteriorating economic conditions worldwide, we agreed that a broader policy response is needed, based on closer macroeconomic cooperation, to restore growth, avoid negative spillovers and support emerging market economies and developing countries. As immediate steps to achieve these objectives, as well as to address longer-term challenges, we will:

* Continue our vigorous efforts and take whatever further actions are necessary to stabilize the financial system. * Recognize the importance of monetary policy support, as deemed appropriate to domestic conditions. * Use fiscal measures to stimulate domestic demand to rapid effect, as appropriate, while maintaining a policy framework conducive to fiscal sustainability. * Help emerging and developing economies gain access to finance in current difficult financial conditions, including through liquidity facilities and program support. We stress the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) important role in crisis response, welcome its new short-term liquidity facility, and urge the ongoing review of its instruments and facilities to ensure flexibility. * Encourage the World Bank and other multilateral development banks (MDBs) to use their full capacity in support of their development agenda, and we welcome the recent introduction of new facilities by the World Bank in the areas of infrastructure and trade finance. * Ensure that the IMF, World Bank and other MDBs have sufficient resources to continue playing their role in overcoming the crisis.

Common Principles for Reform of Financial Markets

8. In addition to the actions taken above, we will implement reforms that will strengthen financial markets and regulatory regimes so as to avoid future crises. Regulation is first and foremost the responsibility of national regulators who constitute the first line of defense against market instability. However, our financial markets are global in scope, therefore, intensified international cooperation among regulators and strengthening of international standards, where necessary, and their consistent implementation is necessary to protect against adverse cross-border, regional and global developments affecting international financial stability. Regulators must ensure that their actions support market discipline, avoid potentially adverse impacts on other countries, including regulatory arbitrage, and support competition, dynamism and innovation in the marketplace. Financial institutions must also bear their responsibility for the turmoil and should do their part to overcome it including by recognizing losses, improving disclosure and strengthening their governance and risk management practices.

9. We commit to implementing policies consistent with the following common principles for reform.

* Strengthening Transparency and Accountability: We will strengthen financial market transparency, including by enhancing required disclosure on complex financial products and ensuring complete and accurate disclosure by firms of their financial conditions. Incentives should be aligned to avoid excessive risk-taking.

* Enhancing Sound Regulation: We pledge to strengthen our regulatory regimes, prudential oversight, and risk management, and ensure that all financial markets, products and participants are regulated or subject to oversight, as appropriate to their circumstances. We will exercise strong oversight over credit rating agencies, consistent with the agreed and strengthened international code of conduct. We will also make regulatory regimes more effective over the economic cycle, while ensuring that regulation is efficient, does not stifle innovation, and encourages expanded trade in financial products and services. We commit to transparent assessments of our national regulatory systems.

* Promoting Integrity in Financial Markets: We commit to protect the integrity of the world’s financial markets by bolstering investor and consumer protection, avoiding conflicts of interest, preventing illegal market manipulation, fraudulent activities and abuse, and protecting against illicit finance risks arising from non-cooperative jurisdictions. We will also promote information sharing, including with respect to jurisdictions that have yet to commit to international standards with respect to bank secrecy and transparency.

* Reinforcing International Cooperation: We call upon our national and regional regulators to formulate their regulations and other measures in a consistent manner. Regulators should enhance their coordination and cooperation across all segments of financial markets, including with respect to cross-border capital flows. Regulators and other relevant authorities as a matter of priority should strengthen cooperation on crisis prevention, management, and resolution.

* Reforming International Financial Institutions: We are committed to advancing the reform of the Bretton Woods Institutions so that they can more adequately reflect changing economic weights in the world economy in order to increase their legitimacy and effectiveness. In this respect, emerging and developing economies, including the poorest countries, should have greater voice and representation. The Financial Stability Forum (FSF) must expand urgently to a broader membership of emerging economies, and other major standard setting bodies should promptly review their membership. The IMF, in collaboration with the expanded FSF and other bodies, should work to better identify vulnerabilities, anticipate potential stresses, and act swiftly to play a key role in crisis response.

Tasking of Ministers and Experts

10. We are committed to taking rapid action to implement these principles. We instruct our Finance Ministers, as coordinated by their 2009 G-20 leadership (Brazil, UK, Republic of Korea), to initiate processes and a timeline to do so. An initial list of specific measures is set forth in the attached Action Plan, including high priority actions to be completed prior to March 31, 2009.

In consultation with other economies and existing bodies, drawing upon the recommendations of such eminent independent experts as they may appoint, we request our Finance Ministers to formulate additional recommendations, including in the following specific areas:

* Mitigating against pro-cyclicality in regulatory policy; * Reviewing and aligning global accounting standards, particularly for complex securities in times of stress; * Strengthening the resilience and transparency of credit derivatives markets and reducing their systemic risks, including by improving the infrastructure of over-the-counter markets; * Reviewing compensation practices as they relate to incentives for risk taking and innovation; * Reviewing the mandates, governance, and resource requirements of the IFIs; and * Defining the scope of systemically important institutions and determining their appropriate regulation or oversight.

11. In view of the role of the G-20 in financial systems reform, we will meet again by April 30, 2009, to review the implementation of the principles and decisions agreed today.

Commitment to an Open Global Economy

12. We recognize that these reforms will only be successful if grounded in a commitment to free market principles, including the rule of law, respect for private property, open trade and investment, competitive markets, and efficient, effectively regulated financial systems. These principles are essential to economic growth and prosperity and have lifted millions out of poverty, and have significantly raised the global standard of living. Recognizing the necessity to improve financial sector regulation, we must avoid over-regulation that would hamper economic growth and exacerbate the contraction of capital flows, including to developing countries.

13. We underscore the critical importance of rejecting protectionism and not turning inward in times of financial uncertainty. In this regard, within the next 12 months, we will refrain from raising new barriers to investment or to trade in goods and services, imposing new export restrictions, or implementing World Trade Organization (WTO) inconsistent measures to stimulate exports. Further, we shall strive to reach agreement this year on modalities that leads to a successful conclusion to the WTO’s Doha Development Agenda with an ambitious and balanced outcome. We instruct our Trade Ministers to achieve this objective and stand ready to assist directly, as necessary. We also agree that our countries have the largest stake in the global trading system and therefore each must make the positive contributions necessary to achieve such an outcome.

14. We are mindful of the impact of the current crisis on developing countries, particularly the most vulnerable. We reaffirm the importance of the Millennium Development Goals, the development assistance commitments we have made, and urge both developed and emerging economies to undertake commitments consistent with their capacities and roles in the global economy. In this regard, we reaffirm the development principles agreed at the 2002 United Nations Conference on Financing for Development in Monterrey, Mexico, which emphasized country ownership and mobilizing all sources of financing for development.

15. We remain committed to addressing other critical challenges such as energy security and climate change, food security, the rule of law, and the fight against terrorism, poverty and disease.

16. As we move forward, we are confident that through continued partnership, cooperation, and multilateralism, we will overcome the challenges before us and restore stability and prosperity to the world economy.

Action Plan to Implement Principles for Reform

This Action Plan sets forth a comprehensive work plan to implement the five agreed principles for reform. Our finance ministers will work to ensure that the taskings set forth in this Action Plan are fully and vigorously implemented. They are responsible for the development and implementation of these recommendations drawing on the ongoing work of relevant bodies, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), an expanded Financial Stability Forum (FSF), and standard setting bodies.

Strengthening Transparency and Accountability

Immediate Actions by March 31, 2009 * The key global accounting standards bodies should work to enhance guidance for valuation of securities, also taking into account the valuation of complex, illiquid products, especially during times of stress. * Accounting standard setters should significantly advance their work to address weaknesses in accounting and disclosure standards for off-balance sheet vehicles. * Regulators and accounting standard setters should enhance the required disclosure of complex financial instruments by firms to market participants. * With a view toward promoting financial stability, the governance of the international accounting standard setting body should be further enhanced, including by undertaking a review of its membership, in particular in order to ensure transparency, accountability, and an appropriate relationship between this independent body and the relevant authorities. * Private sector bodies that have already developed best practices for private pools of capital and/or hedge funds should bring forward proposals for a set of unified best practices. Finance Ministers should assess the adequacy of these proposals, drawing upon the analysis of regulators, the expanded FSF, and other relevant bodies.

Medium-term actions * The key global accounting standards bodies should work intensively toward the objective of creating a single high-quality global standard. * Regulators, supervisors, and accounting standard setters, as appropriate, should work with each other and the private sector on an ongoing basis to ensure consistent application and enforcement of high-quality accounting standards. * Financial institutions should provide enhanced risk disclosures in their reporting and disclose all losses on an ongoing basis, consistent with international best practice, as appropriate. Regulators should work to ensure that a financial institution’ financial statements include a complete, accurate, and timely picture of the firm’s activities (including off-balance sheet activities) and are reported on a consistent and regular basis.

Enhancing Sound Regulation

Regulatory Regimes

Immediate Actions by March 31, 2009 * The IMF, expanded FSF, and other regulators and bodies should develop recommendations to mitigate pro-cyclicality, including the review of how valuation and leverage, bank capital, executive compensation, and provisioning practices may exacerbate cyclical trends.

Medium-term actions * To the extent countries or regions have not already done so, each country or region pledges to review and report on the structure and principles of its regulatory system to ensure it is compatible with a modern and increasingly globalized financial system. To this end, all G-20 members commit to undertake a Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) report and support the transparent assessments of countries’ national regulatory systems. * The appropriate bodies should review the differentiated nature of regulation in the banking, securities, and insurance sectors and provide a report outlining the issue and making recommendations on needed improvements. A review of the scope of financial regulation, with a special emphasis on institutions, instruments, and markets that are currently unregulated, along with ensuring that all systemically-important institutions are appropriately regulated, should also be undertaken. * National and regional authorities should review resolution regimes and bankruptcy laws in light of recent experience to ensure that they permit an orderly wind-down of large complex cross-border financial institutions. * Definitions of capital should be harmonized in order to achieve consistent measures of capital and capital adequacy.

Prudential Oversight

Immediate Actions by March 31, 2009 * Regulators should take steps to ensure that credit rating agencies meet the highest standards of the international organization of securities regulators and that they avoid conflicts of interest, provide greater disclosure to investors and to issuers, and differentiate ratings for complex products. This will help ensure that credit rating agencies have the right incentives and appropriate oversight to enable them to perform their important role in providing unbiased information and assessments to markets. * The international organization of securities regulators should review credit rating agencies’ adoption of the standards and mechanisms for monitoring compliance. * Authorities should ensure that financial institutions maintain adequate capital in amounts necessary to sustain confidence. International standard setters should set out strengthened capital requirements for banks’ structured credit and securitization activities.

* Supervisors and regulators, building on the imminent launch of central counterparty services for credit default swaps (CDS) in some countries, should: speed efforts to reduce the systemic risks of CDS and over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives transactions; insist that market participants support exchange traded or electronic trading platforms for CDS contracts; expand OTC derivatives market transparency; and ensure that the infrastructure for OTC derivatives can support growing volumes.

Medium-term actions * Credit Ratings Agencies that provide public ratings should be registered. * Supervisors and central banks should develop robust and internationally consistent approaches for liquidity supervision of, and central bank liquidity operations for, cross-border banks.

Risk Management

Immediate Actions by March 31, 2009 * Regulators should develop enhanced guidance to strengthen banks’ risk management practices, in line with international best practices, and should encourage financial firms to reexamine their internal controls and implement strengthened policies for sound risk management. * Regulators should develop and implement procedures to ensure that financial firms implement policies to better manage liquidity risk, including by creating strong liquidity cushions. * Supervisors should ensure that financial firms develop processes that provide for timely and comprehensive measurement of risk concentrations and large counterparty risk positions across products and geographies. * Firms should reassess their risk management models to guard against stress and report to supervisors on their efforts. * The Basel Committee should study the need for and help develop firms’ new stress testing models, as appropriate. * Financial institutions should have clear internal incentives to promote stability, and action needs to be taken, through voluntary effort or regulatory action, to avoid compensation schemes which reward excessive short-term returns or risk taking. * Banks should exercise effective risk management and due diligence over structured products and securitization.

Medium -term actions * International standard setting bodies, working with a broad range of economies and other appropriate bodies, should ensure that regulatory policy makers are aware and able to respond rapidly to evolution and innovation in financial markets and products.

* Authorities should monitor substantial changes in asset prices and their implications for the macroeconomy and the financial system.

Promoting Integrity in Financial Markets

Immediate Actions by March 31, 2009 * Our national and regional authorities should work together to enhance regulatory cooperation between jurisdictions on a regional and international level. * National and regional authorities should work to promote information sharing about domestic and cross-border threats to market stability and ensure that national (or regional, where applicable) legal provisions are adequate to address these threats. * National and regional authorities should also review business conduct rules to protect markets and investors, especially against market manipulation and fraud and strengthen their cross-border cooperation to protect the international financial system from illicit actors. In case of misconduct, there should be an appropriate sanctions regime.

Medium -term actions * National and regional authorities should implement national and international measures that protect the global financial system from uncooperative and non-transparent jurisdictions that pose risks of illicit financial activity. * The Financial Action Task Force should continue its important work against money laundering and terrorist financing, and we support the efforts of the World Bank – UN Stolen Asset Recovery (StAR) Initiative. * Tax authorities, drawing upon the work of relevant bodies such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), should continue efforts to promote tax information exchange. Lack of transparency and a failure to exchange tax information should be vigorously addressed.

Reinforcing International Cooperation

Immediate Actions by March 31, 2009 * Supervisors should collaborate to establish supervisory colleges for all major cross-border financial institutions, as part of efforts to strengthen the surveillance of cross-border firms. Major global banks should meet regularly with their supervisory college for comprehensive discussions of the firm’s activities and assessment of the risks it faces. * Regulators should take all steps necessary to strengthen cross-border crisis management arrangements, including on cooperation and communication with each other and with appropriate authorities, and develop comprehensive contact lists and conduct simulation exercises, as appropriate.

Medium -term actions * Authorities, drawing especially on the work of regulators, should collect information on areas where convergence in regulatory practices such as accounting standards, auditing, and deposit insurance is making progress, is in need of accelerated progress, or where there may be potential for progress. * Authorities should ensure that temporary measures to restore stability and confidence have minimal distortions and are unwound in a timely, well-sequenced and coordinated manner.

Reforming International Financial Institutions

Immediate Actions by March 31, 2009 * The FSF should expand to a broader membership of emerging economies. * The IMF, with its focus on surveillance, and the expanded FSF, with its focus on standard setting, should strengthen their collaboration, enhancing efforts to better integrate regulatory and supervisory responses into the macro-prudential policy framework and conduct early warning exercises. * The IMF, given its universal membership and core macro-financial expertise, should, in close coordination with the FSF and others, take a leading role in drawing lessons from the current crisis, consistent with its mandate. * We should review the adequacy of the resources of the IMF, the World Bank Group and other multilateral development banks and stand ready to increase them where necessary. The IFIs should also continue to review and adapt their lending instruments to adequately meet their members’ needs and revise their lending role in the light of the ongoing financial crisis. * We should explore ways to restore emerging and developing countries’ access to credit and resume private capital flows which are critical for sustainable growth and development, including ongoing infrastructure investment. * In cases where severe market disruptions have limited access to the necessary financing for counter-cyclical fiscal policies, multilateral development banks must ensure arrangements are in place to support, as needed, those countries with a good track record and sound policies.

Medium -term actions * We underscored that the Bretton Woods Institutions must be comprehensively reformed so that they can more adequately reflect changing economic weights in the world economy and be more responsive to future challenges. Emerging and developing economies should have greater voice and representation in these institutions. * The IMF should conduct vigorous and even-handed surveillance reviews of all countries, as well as giving greater attention to their financial sectors and better integrating the reviews with the joint IMF/World Bank financial sector assessment programs. On this basis, the role of the IMF in providing macro-financial policy advice would be strengthened. * Advanced economies, the IMF, and other international organizations should provide capacity-building programs for emerging market economies and developing countries on the formulation and the implementation of new major regulations, consistent with international standards.

Share

Think or Swim (options playbook)

Monday, November 10th, 2008
 

You’re smart. We’ve already assumed that. So thinkorswim doesn’t dumb down trading options. We’ll tell you more than you need to know about time spreads and early exercise. And, if you still have trouble sleeping, you can party all night learning about butterflies and boxes.

 
 

The Option Playbook is our version of a cheat sheet for option strategies. Got a hunch? The Playbook takes into account both your market prognosis and your risk objectives. It’s not exhaustive, by any means; nor is it a crystal ball. Think of it as testing the winds before kick-off.

  Limited Risk Strategies Unlimited Risk Strategies
 
Share

A Divided Hawthorne?

Tuesday, November 4th, 2008

Something became clear to me in a moment of randomness.   After posting the Hawthorne affect on my blog and then watching “A Divided Classroom”  I realized that productivity is mostly a contribution of self-esteem and confidence.  Beyond productivity, success is an affect of self-esteem and confidence.   In the Hawthorne affect, peoples belief that something special was happening to them for them.  Then in “A Divided Classroom” the students washed their prejudices away and realized that  blue eye are not better than brown eye and visa versa.   Thereafter, an unforeseen explosion of aptitude among the students created the same affect as the Hawthorne.  She was able to create self-esteem and confidence in 24 hours.   Thereafter, much like the Hawthorne affect, it created instant results among participants after the exercises or test.  

What does this mean?   I am going to take a closer look at this as it may be one reason the US has been so resilient as a melting pot.   We believe we are entrepreneurial, innovative, and risk-takers.  We create these Hawthorne and Divided Classroom experiences artificially and our confidence levels are key to the success of our economy, currency and expectations.   The expectations create results as we put the right energy into what we are expected to do based on our own confidence and self-esteem.   Is this the secret to success.   Can we learn from eliminating our prejudices and understand that confidence is our success.   On a day, when Barack Obama projects more confidence than his opponent, prejudices will be put aside.   We all want to look up to a leader, like him or her and believe in a future.  

Look for more insight into this as this sparks some interesting thoughts for me…

Share

The Hawthorne effect

Tuesday, November 4th, 2008

From Economist.com

Nov 3rd 2008

The Hawthorne effect is named after what was one of the most famous experiments (or, more accurately, series of experiments) in industrial history. It marked a sea change in thinking about work and productivity. Previous studies, in particular Frederick Taylor’s influential ideas, had focused on the individual and on ways in which an individual’s performance could be improved. Hawthorne set the individual in a social context, establishing that the performance of employees is influenced by their surroundings and by the people that they are working with as much as by their own innate abilities.

The experiments took place at Western Electric’s factory at Hawthorne, a suburb of Chicago, in the late 1920s and early 1930s. They were conducted for the most part under the supervision of Elton Mayo, an Australian-born sociologist who eventually became a professor of industrial research at Harvard.

The original purpose of the experiments was to study the effects of physical conditions on productivity. Two groups of workers in the Hawthorne factory were used as guinea pigs. One day the lighting in the work area for one group was improved dramatically while the other group’s lighting remained unchanged. The researchers were surprised to find that the productivity of the more highly illuminated workers increased much more than that of the control group.

The employees’ working conditions were changed in other ways too (their working hours, rest breaks and so on), and in all cases their productivity improved when a change was made. Indeed, their productivity even improved when the lights were dimmed again. By the time everything had been returned to the way it was before the changes had begun, productivity at the factory was at its highest level. Absenteeism had plummeted.

The experimenters concluded that it was not the changes in physical conditions that were affecting the workers’ productivity. Rather, it was the fact that someone was actually concerned about their workplace, and the opportunities this gave them to discuss changes before they took place.

A crucial element in Mayo’s findings was the effect that working in groups had on the individual. At one time he wrote:

The desire to stand well with one’s fellows, the so-called human instinct of association, easily outweighs the merely individual interest and the logic of reasoning upon which so many spurious principles of management are based.

Later in life he added:

The working group as a whole actually determined the output of individual workers by reference to a standard that represented the group conception (rather than management’s) of a fair day’s work. This standard was rarely, if ever, in accord with the standards of the efficiency engineers.

Fritz Roethlisberger, a leading member of the research team, wrote:

The Hawthorne researchers became more and more interested in the informal employee groups, which tend to form within the formal organisation of the company, and which are not likely to be represented in the organisation chart. They became interested in the beliefs and creeds which have the effect of making each individual feel an integral part of the group.

Further reading

Gillespie, G., “Manufacturing Knowledge, A History of the Hawthorne Experiments”, Cambridge University Press, 1991

Mayo, E., “The Human Problems of an Industrial Civilisation”, Macmillan, 1933; 2nd edn Harvard University, 1946

Mayo, E., “The Social Problems of an Industrial Civilisation”, Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1949; later edn with appendix, 1975

Roethlisberger, F.J. and Dickson, W.J., “Management and the Worker: An Account of a Research Program Conducted by the Western Electric Company, Hawthorne Works, Chicago”, Harvard University Press, 1939

Share

Fed Funds at 1% again

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

In 2003, we had Fed Funds rates at 1%, at a time when prices were rising and the economy was still boiling even rebounding from the Internet Bubble and 9/11. This fueled irrational exuberance (as coined by Alan Greenspan) and fueled by his policies pushed money into a market that started taking bigger and bigger chances.   This is the first sign of a changing market, Greenspan was focused on the stock market and the dollar, which he needed to as we were in a new post 9/11 world.   The dollar was weakening among foreign currencies and dollars and investors started to flow to new markets as it became easier and easier with the new connectivity of markets globally.  

Stateside, this created an over-heated and irrational sub-prime mortgage market as well as the largest expansion of home ownership in US history.  So now, we are back to 1% Fed Fund rates as of today, which is the right move to create the velocity of money to move throughout the system as we see many deflationary signs and need to get consumers spending some of their monies.   These deflationary signs such as lower gold, oil, housing prices and right now it is tougher to get a loan than it has been for over 25 years.    So the Fed Funds rate could go even lower.   We definitely have all been educated in the stock market and how it connects with the credit market and how our greater global market now works together.   

So today we can celebrate low Fed Rates and also know that they played a major part in getting us here.  It gave a lot of reasons to buy a new home, pay interest only and buy twice the house as you could afford, roll in your credit cards and start over.   The affordability index is something to watch, which Phoenix, California and a few other markets have fallen to their 15 year average affordability.  Places like Boston and Dallas have lower than average affordability.   This was all a Great economic stimulus in a boom time, now we better understand the aftermath of such policies.  

Bottom line, home prices increased faster than incomes, which caused everything to really be unaffordable from the crazy financial products in the market, arms, interest only, etc.   Then came the foreclosures, which drove down prices in many markets back to affordability.  Another thing to look at is home prices compared to the cost to rent. We still have a ways to go for the market to flush everything out.  In a positive look, if I took all the articles and commentary out there, there is more and more optimism appearing in the short term.   In the long term, we live in a new world that we will continually see how it unfolds and make adjustments.  We have a lot to learn about everything around us, it is really all new.  In 2003, there was not one person standing up trashing Greenspan policies, now there are quite a few.   Hindsight is 20/20.

Share

Globalization creates Localization

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

As the world continues to globalize, we will continue to localize.  

Resources will be polarized as community gardens and farmers markets will start to appear in your neighborhoods and exotics will become more scarce.   The cost of moving goods around the globe is unsustainable as the reliance on oil becomes more of a burden.  We will eventually create communities seeking sustainable solutions even if oil becomes cheap.   We now have a better understanding of climate change, sustainability and green technologies.   We better understand the individual choice and impacts we can make and the incentives are starting to line up for a huge green movement.   From hydro solutions to solar farms to wind farms, community gardens we are enabling innovation and basic sustainable solutions.   Alternative solutions from public transportation, Zipcars and tele-commuting workforces move us in the right direction.   Grid-lock will be freed by self-sustained master planned communities with energy and food being by products of a community.   The world can green and rebuild the inner cities and suburbs with cooperative and sustainable living.   

From Escape from Suburbia, Beyond the American Dream:

  • Power down industrial system, removing CO2 emissions from production
  • Relocalizing economies, work/live/play
  • Reducing transportation, Zipcars, Public Transportations and new communication tools
  • Living closer to work or tele-commuting will become more and more the norm (virtual-enterprises)
  • Using less energy in agriculture production
  • Eating food grown closer to where we live, community farms and farmers markets

The problems we have are enormous, yet we have the innovation and now many reasons to take action on our future.  Action creates optimism, look at the “We can change” climate campaign led by Al Gore. 

What does a sustainable localized economy need?

A Sustainable community has the capability to provide food, water, energy, shelter, healthcare, education and transportation for its citizens.  Localization is happening in smart communities.  The local citizens need to get the City Government, School Board, Chamber and its members and even Local News involved in the movement.  Participatory democracy – people interact with the experts and let the people make the decision.  The alternatives of sharing resources, bicycling, providing free public transportation and Zipcars (my new favorite company).   The power can be created from solar, wind, tidal, geo, bio and hydro.  We are able to upload and download energy to the local grid, this creates less leakage.   Wifi for entire cities and communities, connecting alternative fuels and the entire grid together to communicate.  The distributive grid creates homes using 90% less energy and create sustainable solutions for local communities (not reliant on oil from around the world).

So in my mind sustainability has to start with your community.  It is really the only way you can make an impact.  So reduce, recycle and reuse the resources.

Share

Cardiac arrest for the world economy…

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

The financial system is very much like a circulatory system that connects people together.   Although the people are the financial institutions and the blood is the money.   If blood does not flow from one person to the next, it shuts down.   So we needed an EKG shock to bring it back to life.   The fed and treasury have started deliver an enormous amount of liquidity to pump the blood through the system.   We’ll see if this works. 

There are several blockages throughout the system, in fact there is not much blood flowing in any direction.   Small businesses are getting the crunch as lines of credit disappear and people tighten their wallets.   The US Consumer Society has all but shifted in a few weeks, the more frugal we are the more we protect are severe sickness from getting worse.  Yet, we need to get out and move on to get out of this sickness.   Although, the circle comes around again as the US Debt is now $516,000 per US Citizen and the American population has no savings and no credit, foreclosing and filing for banruptcy as housing plummets and risk taking is gone.   We are more a socialist country today than we have ever been, frozen from the invisible hand swooping away the excesses we have enjoyed.  

Then there are the financial institutions that loaned to companies whom we can say are the cells in the blood.   The companies created very leveraged balance sheets as they moved enormous amounts of debt off the balance sheet and into SIV/SPV companies.  It would be like taking out some of the negative cells out of the blood system.   It looks healthy, yet someday need to come back to the system.   Then, rating agencies took these negative cells and made them feel healthy with good ratings.   Some would go from CCC to AAA with some insurance.   AIG was one of the providers of these credit enhancing insurance.  Unfortunately, with prices plummeting on homeowners and liquidity and movement of cash stalled.   The whole system is about to die.   All at once, the negative cells are moved back into the blood and getting called on as people want liquidity from their hedge funds, banks and money markets.   The blood is draining fast and the pulse is sharply lower.   So the US prescription is to re-capitalize or loan money to the major banks who provide liquidity and stabilize the economy.    Right now, we are still in critical condition, yet the more we learn the more the market has already considered.    

The systems have been identified, which is important going into surgery.   We have started and brought some stability as the market volatility is greater than ever before.   We have not flatlined, it has felt like it and there is more to come.   Now we know we need to do more.   

We saved the major institutions and the other banks will start to consolidate to strength, yet consumers not get jolted with the pains of low blood flow and blockage.   These pains can only be worked out by having surgery on them one by one.   So look for mortgage reform and more policies to help middle America or we may just flatline.

Share

Zipcar

Tuesday, October 28th, 2008

Here is a environmental way to save a ton of money.   More to come in future blogs.   I will share how to put a Solar Panel on your home to immediately lower your energy burn.

Yet, for now the cost of a owning a car keeps climbing each year. So here are some stats that may help you decide if Zipcar is right for you.    Turn the lease in and do not get another. 

Car Ownership  
Car: Something similar to a Chevy Impala or Ford Fusion.
Car payment 
(including depreciation)
$283
Finance charges $62
Insurance $80
Gas $78
License, registration, taxes $45
Maintenance and tires $46
Parking on (or near) campus
(estimated by Zipcar)
$50
Total: $644/mo*
$644/mo is a lot of money!
That’s about 81 hours or 11 days of Zipcar driving.
Zipcar  
Car: Whatever your whim – a hybrid one day, a truck the next.
If you drive a lot $366/mo
Several trips each week and a weekend trek off campus 
(10 two-hour, 2 three-hour and 
2 daily/24-hour reservations)
If you drive a fair amount $180/mo
A couple trips each week 
(6 two-hour and 2 four-hour reservations)
If you don’t drive much $36/mo
About one trip a week 
(4 one-hour reservations)
You only pay for what you use!


Forty percent of Zipcar members have told us they either sold their car or decided not to buy a car because of Zipcar. With each Zipcar taking 20+ personally-owned cars off the road, think of all the good that’s doing for the environment and community.

Members also tell us they save over $435 a month using Zipcar! They appreciate the low rates, living without the hassle of car maintenance and that we pay for gas, parking and insurance. Oh, the fun new cars don’t hurt either.

*Numbers based on a 2007 AAA study of average driving costs.

For me this would save, over $700 a month on our second car, even if we use it daily.   Crazy to think about, that is over $20 a day in savings.   Now, Zipcar just needs to expand to more neighborhoods than ASU in Arizona.

Share

Tax Cuts, Energy, Healthcare, Social Security and the Economy

Monday, October 13th, 2008

What makes America great?   Free Enterprise, Rule of Law and Meritocracy

When the Berlin Wall came down, Adam Smith won over Karl Marx.  Adam Smith and the invisible hand will continue to present challenges as markets change, peoples insatiable needs and we adjust to an advancing society.  
Every few years the invisible hand needs a correction.   Oil in 1973-74, Inflation into 1981, Greed/S&L in 87, Real Estate in 1990-91, Internet Bubble in 2001, Mortgage and Credit Crisis in 2008.   

So we must understand how an economy works.  Can we make tax cuts, spend on energy, healthcare, social security and heal the wounds of a global credit crisis in the current environment?    Can we pull out of the crisis and solve all these issues?

We need a revolutionary way to look at our future.   A new way to tax, a new way to manage our government.   Let’s create an annual report and run it like a company with oversight and so that we can actually congress can vote directly on the issues.   Beyond this, we could even sell shares in the US as a revenue source and use all the financial instruments available to companies today.   This is a radical thought and definitely needs to be challenges, yet the efficiency of taking the US public would create lots of revolutionary opportunities and in a time of change, we can do it.  

Issues like Immigration (aren’t we all immigrants), Education (isn’t this fundamental the way to advance an economy?) and Social Programs (what do we need and we should have abundance with a new structure like this?) have fallen to the wayside.   Free trade is fundamental to global growth, we cannot hide from globalization and creating the most efficient economy is best for all. We are the world economy, part of it and mixed in with it.  So I encourage thinking about and challenging these thoughts.  I do not think I have the answers, yet by thinking about these things in a new way, we might be able to spring some new thoughts together and make some smart decisions.

Tax Cuts for the middle class and rich = Flat Sales Tax, 25% of $13.8 Trillion Known GDP although more to be considered when foreign monies in the US economy = $3.45 Trillion in Tax Revenues compared to $2.1 when we had outlays of $2.7 Billion.   The float of government revenues would be monthly instead of every April.   Also, for the benefit of the people, luxury and other socially negative items will have extra taxes like tobacco, alcohol, drugs and gas which should yield another $1 Trillion dollars.   In the meantime, all subsidies, tariff’s and other taxes would be eliminated.   So the IRS could be eliminated, $10 Billion savings there. 

The other political issues have really fallen by the wayside including abortion, gay marriage and religion in the White House (shouldn’t the government stay out of the bedroom).  These are all really non-issues or should be politically.  Then there is gun rights (NRA should protect peoples right, yet not for Uzzi’s), then there is the environment, energy, foreign policy and homeland security.   All can be solved with a good economy and as Al Gore puts it, the economy, energy, climate change and national security all become part of the solution with focus on sustainability and eliminating our reliance of foreign oil.  Lots of money needs to be invested in green energy, green jobs, green economies and a new green way of life.  Along with a green initiative, we need investment in healthcare as the biotech and healthcare is fundamentally changing from proactive from reactive.   It is an interesting way forward as I see incomes shrinking and people living within their means more, yet I see quality of life rising and rising fast.  

To take a close look at how we spend our money now (2007 dollars), here is some information from the Treasury department.   All this information and more can be found on the Treasury’s site: http://www.fms.treas.gov/annualreport/

National defense—This function includes those activities directly related to the defense and security of the United States.  This amount encompasses Government spending for conventional forces, strategic forces, atomic energy defense activities and other defense related activities.  National defense outlays for fiscal 2007 increased by $38.2 billion, to $560.1 billion. 

Education, training, employment and social services—These programs assist citizens in developing and learning skills to expand their potential opportunities and job placement possibilities.  Outlays for this function were $89.7 billion for fiscal 2007, a decrease of 24.2 percent or $28.6 billion from fiscal 2006 outlays. 

Health—The Federal Government helps meet the nation’s health care needs by financing and providing health care services, aiding disease prevention, and supporting research and training.  Outlays for this function were $266.3 billion in fiscal 2007.  This represents an increase of $13.6 billion over the prior fiscal year. 

Medicare—Through Medicare, the Federal Government contributes to the health and well being of aged and disabled Americans.  Outlays for this function were $375.4 billion in fiscal 2007.  That is an increase of 13.8 percent or $45.5 billion over fiscal 2006 outlays. 

Income security—Income security benefits are paid to the aged, the disabled, and the unemployed and low-income families.  Included within this classification are programs such as general retirement and disability, public assistance and unemployment compensation.  Outlays for these benefits were $367.4 billion in fiscal 2007, an increase of 4.2 percent or $14.9 billion over the fiscal 2006 level. 

Social security—Through social security, the Federal Government contributes to the income security of aged and disabled Americans.  This function’s outlays were $586.2 billion for fiscal 2007.  That represents an increase of 6.9 percent or $37.6 billion over fiscal 2006 outlays. 

Interest—This function includes interest paid by the Federal Government offset by interest collections from the public and interest received by Government trust funds.  Net interest outlays are very sensitive to both interest rates and the amount of debt outstanding.  Net interest outlays increased in fiscal 2007 to $237.9 billion.  This is a 5.0 percent increase from the prior fiscal year. 

All of these issues and the buyout plan (not bailout plan) can be afforded with a fiscal responsibility.  Government needs to get healthy and the US Hegemony can remain in tact.

Share

What to watch for in the credit crunch

Monday, October 13th, 2008

1. Money market desk – are banks starting to lend?   Capital has to be increased in companies and banks so that banks will lend to companies and banks will lend to banks and companies can survive on the cash at hand or get credit from banks. 

2. LIBOR - is a daily reference rate based on the interest rates at which banks offer to lendunsecured funds to other banks in the London wholesale money market (or interbank market).

3. TED Spread -  the TED spread was the difference between the interest rates for three-month U.S. Treasuries contracts and the three-month Eurodollars contract as represented by the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR).

Share